Conclusion
In the US midterms of November 3, 2026, Democrats won majorities in both the Senate and the House. Three days later, on the 6th, President Trump replaced his chief of staff, Susie Wiles, with Stephen Miller. Miller is the aide who designed the second term's immigration crackdown. A White House official explained the appointment as a sign that the president is not rethinking his policies.
What a Democratic Congress can stop is budgets, investigations and confirmations. Overriding a presidential veto takes two-thirds of both chambers, and Democrats do not have it. For the next two years, the president still decides war, tariffs and foreign policy. A president who can no longer pass laws at home puts an aide who will not change course at the head of his staff, and acts in foreign policy, where Congress binds him least. That combination is the reason to expect more turmoil in the world.
What happened
- Senate: Democrats took seven Republican seats (Kansas, Texas, Iowa, South Carolina, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina). As of the morning of the 4th, Democrats held 54 and Republicans 44. Alaska and Mississippi were still uncalled.
- House: as of the 6th, Democrats had won 253 of 435 seats, with 27 uncalled.
- Governors: Democrats won five new states and hold a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010.
- Republicans did not take a single Democratic-held seat, governorship or state legislative chamber (AP data, via CNBC).
- In the NBC exit poll, about two-thirds of voters said tariffs had hurt them economically.
- The Iran war, begun on February 28, pushed up gasoline prices, and the president's approval stood at 33% in the August Reuters/Ipsos poll.
- The new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027.
What Miller has done
Miller is 41 and has been at Trump's side since the 2016 campaign. In the first term he helped design the executive order barring entry from several Muslim-majority countries. From January 2025 he served as deputy chief of staff for policy and homeland security adviser, and is described as the designer of the second term's immigration crackdown and mass deportations. After immigration agents shot and killed two US citizens in Minneapolis in January 2026, the White House rolled back part of the policy. He has also defended the Iran war.
The chief of staff controls the president's schedule and decides which proposals and which people reach the president. On his appointment, Miller wrote on X that he would fight with all his soul to support the president. Democrats say they will investigate him through the House Oversight Committee.
What Congress can stop, and what it can hardly stop
| What Congress can stop | What Congress can hardly stop |
|---|---|
| Budgets. Foreign-affairs and defense appropriations start in the House and must pass both chambers | The veto. Overriding it takes two-thirds of both chambers. The president had said that if Republicans lost, he would veto everything |
| Investigations. Committees can demand documents and summon officials | Tariffs. They are levied under powers Congress has already handed to the president |
| Nominations and treaties. The Senate confirms and ratifies | War. The Iran war began without congressional approval. A bill to end it would still face the veto |
The tariffs survived even a loss in court. On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize tariffs. The administration switched to other statutes, and since July 24 it has imposed additional tariffs on 60 economies under Section 301 of the Trade Act. Imports from Japan are capped at 12.5% including the original duty (items under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, such as cars, are handled separately). When one statute is struck down, another can do the same thing. For Congress to change this, it must rewrite the powers it handed over, and that bill also faces the veto.
A president constrained at home acts abroad
Jon Alterman of CSIS says that for presidents who are politically constrained at home, foreign policy is the area where they can act with relative freedom (Reuters). A senior official in Japan's Prime Minister's Office shares the concern that a president constrained at home may speak out more on foreign affairs (KAB, November 4).
What the president can move on his own in the next two years is the following (as laid out by CFR).
- The Iran war. After the April ceasefire and the June memorandum, fighting resumed, and the memorandum expired in August.
- Ukraine. The president may try to end the war on terms unfavorable to Ukraine, and Europeans fear NATO could become part of a deal with Moscow.
- Asia. Tariffs and a retreat from security commitments have cost the US the trust of many Asian countries. In November, China hosts the APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen, and a US–China summit is planned.
Congress resists with budgets and investigations; the president answers with the veto. Domestic policy stops there, and what moves is foreign policy and tariffs, which the president can decide alone. The person now in the post that assembles those proposals is Miller.
A new Congress does not change war or tariffs. What changed is that laws no longer pass at home, and who stands beside the president.
For companies in Japan
When you cannot read the other side's judgment, what you can do is reduce what depends on it.
- Exports to the US. The tariff rate changes each time the statute behind it changes. In 2026 alone it moved from IEEPA to Section 122 to Section 301 of the Trade Act.
- Oil. It moves with the course of the Iran war.
- The tools and records of your work. Put them on a US company's cloud, and that company follows US government orders. This is the "Trump problem" described in series chapter 3-03. This election did not change the fact that Congress can hardly stop it.
Keep on your own side what you can keep on your own side. The Independence part of the series is the procedure for that.
Related
- AI-Native Software Development 3-03 — Digital Sovereignty: The Microsoft Problem and the Trump Problem — what you place with a US company depends on the US government's judgment
- The Beginning of the End of American AI Hegemony — one administration's decisions moved five layers of US dependence at once
- What If Trump Destroys Iran's Power Plants — an analysis written early in the Iran war